Efforts
have been made in Pittsburgh to build for the future, trading away some of their
pricer commodities for prospects and spending more aggressively in the draft.
So with the focus on the future, it’s not too big of a surprise that things got
worse for the Pirates this season, finishing with the worst record in all of
baseball while securing the first overall pick in next year’s draft.
The
Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992. Their average draft position
from 1994 to last year was 7.5. In the last 10 years (2001-2010) their average
draft position was 4.7. 2011 will mark the third time the Pirates have owned
the first overall pick during that span, taking Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington
with the first pick in 1996 and 2002 respectively.
Speaking
of those two players, Benson had a respectable career, but after showing flashes
of brilliance early, he for the most part fizzled away. Bullington, along with
several other top pitching prospects selected with first-round picks (John
VanBenschoten, Sean Burnett, Bobby Bradley and Clint Johnson), had their
aspiring careers derailed by injury.
Brad
Lincoln, the fourth overall pick from 2005, has also seen his career path slowed
due to injury. The eighth overall pick in the 2003 draft, Paul Maholm, has
stayed healthy, but only has one full season under his belt with an ERA under
4.44. Daniel Moskos, the fourth overall pick from 2007, has returned to his
more comfortable role coming out of the bullpen in the minor leagues.
The
Pirates have had a little more luck with positional prospects. Pedro Alvarez,
the second overall pick from 2008, had a nice debut this past season for the
Pirates, and has plenty of room for improvement. Neil Walker, the team’s
first-round pick from 2004, finally made a mark at the big-league level,
settling in at second base. Their 2005 first-round pick, Andrew McCutchen,
continued to play well and is one of the more exciting young players in the
league.
After
they were heavily criticized for passing on superior talents such as Matt
Wieters with the fourth overall pick in 2007 for financial reasons, the Pirates
loosened the purse strings in 2008 when it took six million dollars to lock up
Alvarez. They spent $8.7 million on their top 13 picks in 2009 and another
$8.75 million on their top two picks from last year’s draft, Jameson Taillon and
Stetson Allie.
So money
shouldn’t play too big of a factor in their decision next June, and after
finishing last in the National League in both ERA and runs scored, they
shouldn’t get too cute trying to decide between a positional prospect or a
pitcher. The four players currently discussed as the likely candidates for that
pick include right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole of UCLA, lefty Matt Purke of TCU,
third baseman Anthony Rendon of Rice, and outfielder George Springer of UConn.
If
you’re a Pirates’ fan wondering if the Buccos may be the next big sleeper team
to make a dramatic turnaround, consider that worst to first scenarios, or at
least close to them, have happened twice in the last decade.
The
Minnesota Twins, who owned the first overall pick in 2001 (the year they took
Joe Mauer), finished 85-77, a 16-game improvement from the year before.
Starting the following year in 2002, the Twins have made the postseason six
times in nine seasons.
The Rays
made it to the World Series as part of the 2008 season, the same year they owned
the first overall pick (the second year in a row that they did so). While the
Rays’ 31 games improvement from 2007 to 2008 was a huge surprise, they had a lot
more talent in place than what the Pirates currently do.
In other
words, you would have to hope a lot of things go right next year to pick the
Pirates as a sleeper. Slowly but surely the Pirates are accumulating impact
talent, but it’s going to take some more time and patience for the pieces to
come together. The number one overall pick in next year’s draft will help
bridge that gap.
A few
other notes about the draft order:
• The
Pirates aren’t the only team that can’t seem to get out of the cellar. The
Orioles and Royals assumed their usual spots among the top five overall picks at
fourth and fifth respectively.
• What
appeared to be a breakout season a year ago, the Seattle Mariners dropped back
down to earth, securing the second overall pick for next year’s draft as they
did in 2009. The 16 pick drop was the largest of any team from the 2010 to 2011
raw draft order.
• The
San Diego Padres had the largest jump in the draft order, going from ninth to
25th. After not signing the ninth overall pick this past year (Karsten
Whitson), the Padres have a pair of first-rounders in the raw draft order.
• Both
the Diamondbacks (third and seventh) and Brewers (12th and 15th) also have a
pair of first-round picks since they didn’t sign their 2010 first-round picks
(Barret Loux and Dylan Covey respectively).
• The
Mariners will receive a supplemental third-round selection for not signing
third-rounder Ryne Stanek, the only other player in the top three rounds that
did not sign by the August 16 deadline.
This is
how the raw draft order in the first round stacks up with the end of the regular
season (winning percentage in parenthesis -- tie-breakers are awarded to the
team that finished with the worse record the previous year):
1.
Pirates (.352)
2.
Mariners (.377)
3.
Diamondbacks (.401)
4.
Orioles (.407)
5.
Royals (.414)
6.
Nationals (.426)
7.
Diamondbacks (unsigned ’10 first-rounder Barret Loux)
8.
Indians (.426)
9. Cubs
(.463)
10.
Padres (unsigned ’10 first-rounder Karsten Whitson)
11.
Astros (.469)
12.
Brewers (.475)
13.
Mets (.488)
14.
Marlins (.494)
15.
Brewers (unsigned ’10 first-rounder Dylan Covey)
16.
Dodgers (.494)
17.
Angels (.494)
18.
Athletics (.500)
19.
Tigers (.500)
20.
Rockies (.512)
21.
Blue Jays (.525)
22.
Cardinals (.531)
23.
White Sox (.543)
24. Red
Sox (.549)
25.
Padres (.556)
26.
Rangers (.556)
27.
Reds (.562)
28.
Braves (.562)
29.
Giants (.568)
30.
Twins (.580)
31.
Yankees (.586)
32.
Rays (.593)
33.
Phillies (.599)
Be sure
to stayed tuned to Perfect Game in the coming days for Allan Simpson’s top 300
prospects for the 2011 draft and top 200 list for 2012.
The
thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect
Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and 5 Tool
Talk, and can be contacted via email at
pebert@5tooltalk.com.